SWODY1
SPC AC 090547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2007
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE...LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS WA/ORE/CA AND
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..ERN PA AND VICINITY...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE.
MODELS HINT THAT ESELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY-ENHANCED SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF/STRONGER WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.GOSS.. 10/09/2007
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