SWODY1
SPC AC 141253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...
..SYNOPSIS...
CNTRL/SRN RCKYS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM NEARS THE CA CST. THE RCKYS SYSTEM MAY
DECELERATE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS NRN PART CLOSES OFF OVER
WRN NEB AND SRN SPEED MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO CONTINUES E/NE INTO SW
TX.
SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO RCKYS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NW TX THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOCAL MAX IN
SFC HEATING. THE CIRCULATION SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND MAIN CENTER REFORMS NEWD CLOSER TO
DEVELOPING UPR LOW IN NRN KS/SE NEB.
..SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG AXIS OF PERSISTENT 850 MB WAA FROM NW KS/S CNTRL NEB
E/NE INTO WRN/NR IA. WHILE CLOUD LYR SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH TIME
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH...MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO POSE AT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN EDGE OF WAA AXIS IN SRN/ERN NEB.
FARTHER S...FROM CNTRL KS SSW INTO WRN OK...NNE/SSW-ORIENTED COLD
FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY STOUT CAP AND INCREASING PREFRONTAL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THAT
INITIATION LIKELY WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH JET STREAK
NOW OVER NRN MEXICO SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RICHER GULF
MOISTURE /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S/ NOW OVER NW TX /NEAR
ABI/. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD N TO ABOUT THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY TONIGHT...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NWD INTO S CNTRL
KS. LOW CLOUDS WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT SFC
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION. COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT THAT STORM
INITIATION IN KS WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO COLD FRONT. FARTHER
S...SOMEWHAT GREATER HEATING MAY OCCUR ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LVL CLOUD
FIELD OVER WRN OK AND NW TX. THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT IN THOSE AREAS...IN ADDITION TO STRONG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500
J/KG.
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 40-50 KT DEEP SW TO SSWLY SHEAR.
UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN...HOWEVER...REGARDING DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
MODE GIVEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INSTABILITY AND FORCING ISSUES.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...BUT ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CNTRL INTO SW OK AND PERHAPS NW TX AS LOW-LVL
SHEAR/ASCENT STRENGTHEN WITH CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF SRN SPEED MAX.
FARTHER S...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SHOULD
OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT S/SW INTO W-CNTRL TX
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND FAIRLY RICH
MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO
ORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A
TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/14/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment