Monday, October 15, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160044
SWODY1
SPC AC 160041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MID SOUTH SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST...

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG DEEPER
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS/ FROM THE
MS DELTA SWWD TO N OF VCT. 00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ CONFINED TO THE TX COAST
WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN STABILITY NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH OWING
TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA
INTO NRN MS/WRN TN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX OVERSPREADS REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...THOUGH THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY AND ANY SEVERE THREAT.

.MEAD.. 10/16/2007

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