Tuesday, October 16, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170041
SWODY1
SPC AC 170039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX
INTO WRN OK...

..WRN TX INTO WRN OK...

REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOW BACKING AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR THE RAPID NWWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 17/03-09Z OVER W-CNTRL TX INTO THE
ERN TX PNHDL BEFORE MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO OK BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NM TRANSLATES NEWD AND
ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WHERE MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1000 J/KG. 00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATES THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD BEING LARGE
HAIL. SHOULD A STORM OR TWO BECOME ROOTED IN MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/.

.MEAD.. 10/17/2007

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