SWODY1
SPC AC 141959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...
..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE E TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES
INDICATED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH FAR WRN OK AND NW TX TO SERN NM.
AT 18Z...A FEW WEAK SURFACE WAVES WERE LOCATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND A SECOND ANALYZED NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE IN NW TX.
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...
BUT BROKEN CLOUDS OVER SW OK/NW TX SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
IN CENTRAL KS TO PART OF NW OK...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NW/NORTH CENTRAL OK. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE SWD
EXTENT INTO OK/NW TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
TO BE GREATEST WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SW OK/NW TX WHERE DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER N...DESPITE MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NEB
INTO WRN IA...LOW LEVEL WAA COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
.PETERS.. 10/14/2007
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