Monday, October 29, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291934
SWODY1
SPC AC 291931

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2007

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN CA/SRN ORE/NWRN NV...

STRONG SUNSHINE APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF CA INTO SRN
ORE/NWRN NV. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S. CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PRIOR TO BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING...LARGE SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT...DUE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SMALL
HAIL...WITH A FEW APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE SIERRA
RANGE BEFORE SPREADING NEWD INTO WRN NV.

..FL PENINSULA...

VERY MOIST...BUT POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS FL
WITHIN DEEP ENELY FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL PENINSULA...WEAK
INSTABILITY/UPDRAFTS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DARROW.. 10/29/2007

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