SWODY1
SPC AC 250542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ERN STATES...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN STATES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THIS PERIOD
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE IN A GENERAL NWLY
DIRECTION. THIS SUGGESTS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL NC THROUGH
ERN SC WILL MAKE LITTLE FURTHER EWD PROGRESS. THE E-W BOUNDARY OVER
NRN NC WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN A MORE SSW-NNE DIRECTION AS COLD AIR
DAMMING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. A
SMALL WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER ERN NC BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND AN SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE WARM SECTOR OVER ERN NC...BUT WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED HEATING WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF ANY CAP AND THE MOIST PROFILES
WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
WARM SECTOR. WITH UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE...STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF WARM SECTOR. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NW IN COOL SECTOR
WHERE THE SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY ABOVE STABLE LAYER.
HOWEVER...MEAGER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT
FOR HAIL.
.DIAL.. 10/25/2007
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