SWODY1
SPC AC 260533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI...
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING IN A
GENERAL NWWD DIRECTION FRIDAY...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE OH
AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ERN NC MAY LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD TO
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WITHIN PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK CAP. STRONGER DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST
OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VORTICITY
MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE RETREATING FRONT TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
COOL SECTOR AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NWD ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER. WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST LIGHTNING COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
.DIAL.. 10/26/2007
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