SWODY1
SPC AC 140054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
..CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W WITH LEAD JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND MORE POTENT UPSTREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER FAR SERN CO/WRN OK PNHDL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT WHILE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN KS. AS
THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.
RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA AND SHORT TERM RUC
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT IS
OCCURRING TO THE LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS PROCESS IS RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING TO SLY
JUST ABOVE THE PBL...WITH THE STRONGEST WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS
DEVELOPING WWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...TO THE N OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS COUPLED WITH INCREASED
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
ELEVATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB.
00Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED...ELEVATED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
.MEAD.. 10/14/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment