Saturday, October 27, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271956
SWODY1
SPC AC 271954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND EJECT
NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM POLAR IMPULSE DIGS
INTO THE GRTLKS REGION. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF UPR LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF CNTRL CA WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD.
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SPORADIC
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL FL VCNTY A FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE AIR
MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO YIELD TSTMS.

..CNTRL FL...
TAIL-END OF A FRONT BISECTS FL VCNTY CAPE CANAVERAL-NAPLES LINE AT
MID-AFTN. GPS PWAT SENSORS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE DRY AIR HAS
INFILTRATED SRN FL...CNTRL FL NEAR THE FRONT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THINNING OVERCAST/DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVERGENCE DERIVED BY BOTH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WAS DRIVING A TSTM CLUSTER JUST WEST OF THE CAPE THIS
AFTN. EXPECT THAT SPORADIC TSTMS/SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THIS EVENING.


..COASTAL SRN CA...
WARM CONVEYOR ALONG E SIDE OF THE RETROGRADING EPAC LOW HAS TAPPED
INTO REMNANT KIKO WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NEWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

.RACY.. 10/27/2007

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