SWODY1
SPC AC 261935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO PA. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES MARITIME TROPICAL
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT AND SELY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...BUOYANCY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AND
70S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IF ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE TO
DEVELOP. RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS
OFFSHORE WELL SOUTH OF THE NC COAST AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HOLD OVER THE WARMER WATERS. ALTHOUGH...A FEW DISCRETE
ECHOES ARE NOW EMBEDDED ALONG ERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER
ERN NC. THESE UPDRAFTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY
EXHIBIT ROTATION. TORNADO THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.
..OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...
NARROW CLOUD-FREE ZONE ARCS ACROSS NERN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO OPEN AND EJECT
EWD. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS THIS REGION AS
SHALLOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM WITHIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO WCNTRL IND. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS THIS
REGION BUT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
DEEPER CLOUD ELEMENTS.
.DARROW.. 10/26/2007
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