DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021641
SWODY2
SPC AC 021640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN PACIFIC
EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO ERN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE WILL SHIFT NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE
PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WITH SRN
EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER TX.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE
SERN STATES WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NE OF CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...NAMELY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK...MOIST ADIABATIC
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SW...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN
ROCKIES. FINALLY...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF
UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHERE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.MEAD.. 10/02/2007

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