SWODY2
SPC AC 050538
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD AND BE CENTERED
NEAR THE GREAT BASIN EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT NOW FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WWD TO A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EWD REACHING THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM ERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
LIMIT NWD RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE
LOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MITIGATED TO
SOME EXTENT BY RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH -7 TO -8C AT 500
MB...AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LIFT NWD INTO CANADA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD THROUGH UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THIS SUGGESTS MOST STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
.DIAL.. 10/05/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment