SWODY2
SPC AC 100519
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY BEFORE EJECTING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS
IT LIFTS NWD ALONG OFFSHORE FRONT AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
..SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA...
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE LIMITED BY OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF EMANATING FROM CP
HIGH PRESSURE. NEVERTHELESS...AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN TX
INTO NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF NWRN OK THROUGH WRN KS WITHIN
ZONE OF LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
.DIAL.. 10/10/2007
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