SWODY2
SPC AC 141718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD TO
NERN TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS WITHIN BAND OF 50-70 KT
SWLY WINDS. ATTENDANT PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A
MORE NEGATIVE ORIENTATION AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE WRN STATES. AT
12Z MONDAY...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN NEB WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD THROUGH ERN KS/OK INTO NRN TO SWRN TX. THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING DURING DAY 2...WITH THE LOW
TRACKING NNEWD INTO IA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO MO. THE
SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH ERN OK INTO AR
AND TOWARD CENTRAL TX.
..ERN OK/NE TX TO PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THAT TRACK OF SYSTEM IS LOCATED WELL INLAND OF THE GULF
COAST...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME FOR A GREATER INTRUSION
OF MOISTURE FARTHER NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE NWD
EXTENT OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
FROM ERN OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE WEAK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND SOME SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ WILL EXTEND FROM ERN OK AND E TX
INTO AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG BAND SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SPREADING ESEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NE TX INTO
ERN OK MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..ERN KS/MO...
SOME SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO COLDER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
THAN EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35
KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.PETERS.. 10/14/2007
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