SWODY2
SPC AC 151721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..IND/LOWER MID/NWRN OH...
MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS IL INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY MEANINGFUL
HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A
RESULT...TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY WITH
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS IND INTO LOWER MI BY MID DAY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES
COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG WITHIN FAVORED ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN GUSTY WINDS AT
BEST.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD INTO AZ LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WRN
U.S. TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
SRN ROCKIES. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AFTER 00Z WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO/NM. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AID AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
800 MB WILL ATTAIN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR ROBUST ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STORM ROTATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR HAIL GENERATION
WITH MANY STORMS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
.DARROW.. 10/15/2007
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