SWODY2
SPC AC 280519
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A SPLIT IN THE UPPER FLOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE STRONGER NORTHERN
BRANCH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WHILE BROAD RIDGING IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
BRANCH...IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH...DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES...AND A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FARTHER WEST...THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...NOW OFF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...IS PROGGED TO FINALLY WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS TOWARD
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.
THE EVOLVING PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE U.S. MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. AND...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.
..CNTRL PAC COASTAL AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN...
MODEL PROG 500 MB COLD CORE OF AROUND -18C...ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW...IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD. BUT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...
DESTABILIZATION COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE SPARSE IN
COVERAGE AT BEST.
..FLORIDA...
A RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA MONDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. THIS COULD SUPPORT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROBABILITIES OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS FOR A CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
.KERR.. 10/28/2007
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