SWODY2
SPC AC 290508
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2007
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGELY ZONAL SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME
..INCREASINGLY SHEARED REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW...NOW APPROACHING
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...ARE PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A
VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIKELY TO DIG EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/ U.S.
BORDER AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
IMPULSE WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. AND...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT
..SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GULF STATES.
..FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE OUTLOOK IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF NOEL.
BUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOIST...NEARLY SATURATED AND AT LEAST WEAKLY POSITIVELY
BUOYANT. THIS COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADIC/DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION...GIVEN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AND...IT STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...EVEN WELL
IN ADVANCE OF NOEL...BEFORE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TURNS INCREASINGLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
GULF STATES...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
UNLIKELY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.
..N CNTRL PAC COAST STATES...
DESTABILIZATION NEAR 500 MB -20C COLD CORE...ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES/SISKIYOUS/NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
.KERR.. 10/29/2007
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