DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231710
SWODY2
SPC AC 231709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY BEGIN A
SLOW RETROGRADE WWD/NWWD LATE IN THE PERIOD OR INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF DAY 3.

IN ANY CASE...WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A DAMMING FRONT
BEGINS MOVING SWD IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS WRN CANADA/INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE ROCKIES.

..SRN VA/CAROLINAS/SERN GA/FL PENINSULA...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. E OF SLOWLY-ADVANCING N-S FRONT/TROUGH
AND S OF SWD-MOVING WEDGE FRONT. CLOUD COVER/WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING...AND THUS EXPECT LESS THAN 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN
MOST AREAS.

ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE W OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THUS
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT. ATTM...WILL INCLUDE AREAS E OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT AND S OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY...AS
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS -- OR EVEN
A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 0-1 KM SHEAR
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KT.

.GOSS.. 10/23/2007

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