SWODY2
SPC AC 101730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS IN THE WRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE LOW EXTENDING SEWD INTO
NORTH TX. SOUTH OF THE LOW...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS MAY
RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
.BROYLES.. 10/10/2007
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