SWODY3
SPC AC 130624
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MO VALLEY SWD INTO NERN TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY ENEWD WHILE TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY AND SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..FAR ERN KS/MO SWD INTO NERN TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS CASTS DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AREAS OF
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MO
AND AR...AND PERHAPS SOME STORM RE-INITIATION BACK W CLOSER TO THE
COLD FRONT.
WITH 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PERSIST ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AGAIN -- DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THE ANTICIPATED WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ASSUMING VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AIDED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION.
.GOSS.. 10/13/2007
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