SWODY3
SPC AC 210701
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
VERY LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS SREF MEMBERS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OR DEEP CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY AREAS
THROUGH DAY 3 /TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. LATEST GFS APPEARS
SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH A DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS LESS SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LARGE AND EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
..SOUTH/NRN FL/SOUTHEAST...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE AND ERN FLANK OF A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. FORCING AND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND MAX WILL SPREAD EAST AND LEND
SUPPORT/ORGANIZATION TO A POSSIBLE FRONTAL OR PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE MOVING EAST FROM THE DELTA/NCNTRL GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NRN FL. PREFER SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF WITH THE CLOSED LOW
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW. THIS MAY KEEP
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED FARTHER WEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
DELTA AND DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION COULD ALSO SUPPORT A SQUALL
LINE PROGRESSING EAST TO GA/SC COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THUS...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
.CARBIN.. 10/21/2007
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