Tuesday, October 23, 2007

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230644
SWODY3
SPC AC 230643

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES WITH THE GRADUAL BUT
EVENTUAL DISLODGEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
SCNTRL CONUS. AS THE DECAYING BAROTROPIC CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY STRONG WLY FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST AND
SOUTHWEST IT SHOULD DRIFT NWD/NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS AND BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/LOW NEARING
THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SEWD FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS.

..SOUTHEAST TO OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...
NARROWING RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E IS FORECAST TO ARC CYCLONICALLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST INLAND AND NWWD AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER
LOW. WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WITHIN THE
CORRIDOR OF GREATER MOISTURE/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY
OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WWD ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS ZONE
OF MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR/WEDGE
FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OR STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO SOON TO DEPICT
A HIGHER PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA WITH ANY ACCURACY.

.CARBIN.. 10/23/2007

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