SWOD48
SPC AC 020900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...10/05 THRU 10/06...
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST GUIDANCE...CONCERNING THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION SUBSEQUENT
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE
NATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THIS WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN NOW EXISTS AMONG
THE LATEST ECMWF...GFS...AND MREF...THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF THE COMING WEEKEND. AND...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT
A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS
WEEK...THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS
INCLUDES THE RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND UNCERTAIN
INFLUENCE OF REMNANTS OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRECLUDE OUTLOOKING AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
.KERR.. 10/02/2007
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