SWOD48
SPC AC 120904
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
THIS FORECAST. WHILE BOTH MODELS BRING A FEATURE INTO THE PLAINS
DAY 6 /I.E. WEDNESDAY OCT. 17/...THE ORIGIN OF THE FEATURE WITHIN
THE TWO MODELS IS OF DIFFERENT. BY DAY 7...CORRELATION BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS HAS DECREASED FURTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED
LOW OVER NERN NM AT 19/00Z...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
IA. THUS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREA BEYOND DAY
6.
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA DAY 6 CENTERED ON KS/OK...BUT THIS IS A
RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE AREA DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS. BOTH DO SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF A LEE LOW...AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.
.GOSS.. 10/12/2007
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