SWOD48
SPC AC 130859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUE THIS
FORECAST. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHILE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN ITS OWN FORECAST 24 HOURS PRIOR.
MEANWHILE...THE MOST RECENT 00Z RUN FROM THE GFS REVEALS A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT FROM THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO...DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO RESEMBLES THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.
OVERALL...THESE DRASTIC VARIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH TIME
SUGGEST THAT PREDICTABILITY AT THE LARGE SCALE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH MODELS DO AGREE IN THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN THAT CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DETERMINING WHICH DAYS THE SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS DIFFICULT. THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THIS FORECAST...DESPITE THE FACT THAT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /INVOF DAYS 5-7...I.E. WED.
OCT. 17-FRI. OCT. 19/.
.GOSS.. 10/13/2007
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