SWOD48
SPC AC 160813
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
DAY 4 /FRI. OCT. 19/ AHEAD OF STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A MOIST/AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY...EXPECT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC SEABOARD -- FROM NEW ENGLAND TO FL -- THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND
FIELD...SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
FIELD...COMING MORE CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF -- AT LEAST
THROUGH DAY 6. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
SHARP/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENTERING THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 6 /SUN.
OCT. 21/ -- WHICH IS ALSO NOW DEPICTED BY THE GFS. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER DAY 6...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO
INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK AREA OVER PARTS OF KS/OK/TX AND VICINITY DAY 6
AS MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE PLAINS BENEATH VERY STRONG SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.
.GOSS.. 10/16/2007
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