SWOD48
SPC AC 250804
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE NRN STREAM
FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7. BROAD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES AND SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5 WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING A BREAK
DOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 7. ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY THROUGH EARLY NOV. MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE GULF AND FL WHERE WEAK RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF
DOES SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND FL
STRAIGHTS IN THE DAY 6-8 PERIOD. WHILE LATEST GFS-ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE LESS POTENTIAL FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...MOST MEMBERS DO
DEPICT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...LONG FETCH...AND STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FL THROUGH DAY 8.
.CARBIN.. 10/25/2007
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