SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140401
KSZ000-NEZ000-140530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702...
VALID 140401Z - 140530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702
CONTINUES.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE GCK/DDC AREAS AND
IN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NRN KS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED WEST OF A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR LBL TO ABOUT 55 NE OF HLC.
MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT AS
40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES STRONG LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000
J/KG...AND THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 50 TO
60 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. SINCE THE STORM BASES ARE
ROOTED AROUND 800 MB....THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
.IMY.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
40010113 40789749 37969813 37440122 39650137
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