SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141756
KSZ000-OKZ000-141900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141756Z - 141900Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND NW OK OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM NEAR GREAT
BEND KS TO NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS. THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC-BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE LATEST PROFILERS ACROSS SRN KS
SUGGEST ABOUT 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER TIME.
.BROYLES.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
39659911 37889965 36979999 36229977 36009919 36159838
37689758 39549750
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