SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150934
TXZ000-151200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN...W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150934Z - 151200Z
TSTM COVERAGE FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING BETWEEN MWL AREA AND
CROCKETT COUNTY...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN.
SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 9Z AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATE COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR INK EWD ACROSS COKE COUNTY AND ABI AREA TO VICINITY CLAY
COUNTY...MOVING SWD AND SSEWD 15-20 KT...AND INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NW MWL. FRONT IS PRECEDED AT LEAST BETWEEN MWL-SJT BY
UNDULAR BORES MOVING SEWD 20-25 KT. INITIALLY DISCRETE TSTMS
APPEARED TO INITIATE ON UVM SIDES OF THOSE BORES BETWEEN
RUNNELS-EASTLAND COUNTIES AND ARE FILLING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE.
COLD FRONT SHOULD UNDERCUT CONVECTION FROM NW-SE...WITH DEEPENING
WEDGE OF CAA IN BOUNDARY LAYER RENDERING INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...PRIND
TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD RICHER LOW LEVEL THETAE NOW EVIDENT
GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-20...W OF DFW METROPLEX. SLOW DIABATIC
COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH
SFC...AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD PREVAIL. HOWEVER...MUCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG JUXTAPOSED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT MAY SUPPORT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
FARTHER WSW...TSTMS HAVE FORMED BETWEEN IRION AND NRN TERRELL
COUNTIES IN AREA OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EVIDENT IN
SURROUNDING/MESOSCALE PLUME OF IR CLOUD TOP COOLING. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ARE WEAKER THAN FARTHER E
OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE THIS ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS TO LIFT ALSO
MAY BE PROVIDED BY UVM SIDES OF OSCILLATIONS PROPAGATING SEWD AS
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WRN PORTION OF BORE FIELD.
.EDWARDS.. 10/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
30650210 30870136 31280085 31930011 32259946 32909853
33019803 32699758 32099798 31269866 30609951 30150118
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