SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180802
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-180900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS...SWRN AL AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 180802Z - 180900Z
STORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS FAR SERN MS AND SWRN AL...AND
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FL PANHANDLE. A WATCH
IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BE SHORT
LIVED...RESULTING IN A LOW END THREAT.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WERE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE TN/MD MS VALLEYS...WARM
ADVECTION BETWEEN 750-800 MB APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35-40 KT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MID LEVEL ROTATION. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 20-30
KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM MIGHT EVEN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE CONVERGENCE/LIFT IS LIKELY ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND GPS MOISTURE SHOWS PW/S ABOVE 2
INCHES...BRIEF DOWNBURSTS FROM WATER LOADING APPEAR TO BE THE
GREATER THREAT.
.IMY.. 10/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
29988822 31558893 32198851 32328758 31798699 30898657
30368657 30118663
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