SWODY1
SPC AC 010442
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN THUNDER-FREE DUE TO AN EXPANSIVE AND
STABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS BEHIND A LEAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON ALBEIT WITH NO INSTABILITY.
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINING E OF THE FL
PENINSULA. PERSISTENT E TO NELY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SRN AND ERN FL...BUT OVERALL THUNDER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/POOR LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...SHORELINE CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF HEATING MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY ALONG THE FL E COAST. GIVEN
DISTANCE FROM NOEL...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES.
.JEWELL.. 11/01/2007
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