SWODY1
SPC AC 020505
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE W AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
CAROLINAS...WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL AS IT PASSES TO THE E AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LAKE
INDUCED LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A REINFORCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...SPREADING COOL AND DRY AIR
SWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES.
..ERN CAROLINAS...
WARM AND MOIST ELY FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NOEL MOVES NNEWD. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
COOLING WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AND WILL RESULT IN
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAINLY IN THE 800-650 MB LAYER. NAM AND
NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. COMBINATION OF
WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VERY SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
RELATIVELY SUSTAINED STORM CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE EVENING.
.JEWELL.. 11/02/2007
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