SWODY1
SPC AC 211625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX THRU LOWER MS/WRN
TN VALLEY...
..LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEYS...
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE
SCENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED THIS AM FROM
CENTRAL IL SWWD ACROSS SERN OK TO SWRN TX. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IS ACCOMPANYING S/WV TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR INCREASING SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 25-30KT IN PLACE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING THRU THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF THE WIND MAX TRACKING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...DISCRETE SURFACE BASED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. AR INTO SERN MO APPEARS
TO BE AN AREA WHERE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS THE
EARLY CONCERN FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADOES.
STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ON THE COLD FRONT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD SWD INTO ERN TX WHERE MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG
WILL BE IN PLACE. 50-60 KT OF SHEAR ACROSS NRN PORTION OF SLIGHT
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AFTER
00Z EWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY WITH CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. FURTHER S SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...BUT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL ERN TX INTO LA GIVEN
MORE LIMITED SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT.
.HALES/BOTHWELL.. 11/21/2007
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