Tuesday, November 20, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201938
SWODY1
SPC AC 201935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AT MID-DAY STRONG COLD FRONT CENTRAL PLAINS WWD INTO CENTRAL CO/UT
CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SEWD. THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT ON ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED S/SWLY FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE
TEMPS TO NEAR 80F. WITH THE AID OF WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SRN
BRANCH IMPULSE NOW MOVING FROM NRN MEX INTO TX ALONG WITH MUCAPES
UPWARD TO 1500 J/KG CENTRAL TX...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN TX
LIMITED SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM FAVOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

OVERNIGHT MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE NEWD
THRU WRN OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI. PCPN INCLUDING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE BEGINNING BY THIS
EVENING FROM NRN MO NEWD ACROSS NRN IL AND THEN INTO MI TONIGHT
ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL ZONE.

.HALES.. 11/20/2007

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