Saturday, November 17, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170540
SWODY1
SPC AC 170537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTH TEXAS...

POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO TX LATER TODAY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TX COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE RESPONDED AND BECOME MORE SELY
OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN. LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS MODIFICATION WHILE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WRN GULF
BUOYS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 60S. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX SUCH THAT
NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS SHOULD BECOME POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITHIN
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
30-40KT SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
SCNTRL/SERN TX. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST STORM ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST THINKING IS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL
COULD BE NOTED WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.DARROW/JEWELL.. 11/17/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: