SWODY1
SPC AC 180543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD
AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN THIRD
OF THE NATION AND MORE INTENSE...UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ONTO PACIFIC
NW COAST. LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TX IS
FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..SERN TX INTO LA...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO LA IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ESEWD. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER THE WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPES TO AOB 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
WITH ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E
OF REGION.
.MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/18/2007
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