Saturday, November 24, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
ESEWD ACROSS NW MEXICO...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EWD...REACHING TX BIG BEND REGION BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED OFF THE TX GULF
COAST /60 S GLS/ WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NWRN
GULF TO THE S OF LA. BOTH OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL MOVE
NNEWD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE W...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...OR JUST REACH THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX/SW LA
COASTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ACROSS SRN/ERN
TX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW RESULTING IN A MORE DIFFLUENT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION. ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
INCREASING WAA REGIME ALONG AXIS OF STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM TX COAST
TO ARKLATEX. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS NEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /400-800 J/KG/ ROOTED
ATOP A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 850-700 MB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE.

.PETERS.. 11/25/2007

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