SWODY1
SPC AC 231615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NRN STREAM FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES/NE STATES...AND A SRN STREAM
OVER AZ/NM/TX AND NRN MEXICO. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS
PERIOD WILL BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV/CA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SWD TOWARD NRN BAJA/NW MEXICO. AN INITIAL MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EWD OVER
NRN NM/SRN CO...WILL MOVE NEWD AND WEAKEN IN A CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION FROM NW/N
CENTRAL NM SEWD INTO SE NM...BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
ACROSS THIS AREA APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT EITHER EXPANSION
OR CONTINUATION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER BAJA/NW
MEXICO...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX
COAST. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER S TX
TONIGHT TO N OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW...WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT
AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/23/2007
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