SWODY1
SPC AC 300523
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST THU NOV 29 2007
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..AZ...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SSEWD THROUGH
CA BEFORE EJECTING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CUTOFF LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BE PICKED
UP BY THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT. COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER AZ
AND NM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER AZ FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
A BROADER AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.
.DIAL.. 11/30/2007
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