Friday, November 30, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301301
SWODY1
SPC AC 301258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTHWEST STATES...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CA/AZ/NM. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THIS AREA BY 00Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT COMBINATION OF COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF AZ AFTER
DARK...LIKELY LEADING TO AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY RISK OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.

.HART/BRIGHT.. 11/30/2007

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