SWODY1
SPC AC 231319
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SOUTHERN PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS STATES...
SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HAS
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION
IN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO
GREATER STABILITY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER IMPULSE DIGGING SWD
ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.
..SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS...
DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ABOVE A LINGERING COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR. THIS IS MOSTLY EXPECTED DURING THE 24/03-12Z TIME
FRAME...NORTH OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CAP SPREADING INTO PARTS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
..CENTRAL/SRN FL...
SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF SURFACE COLD
FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS FL TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND AFTERNOON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AREA OF WARM AIR BETWEEN H85 AND
H7 WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER LAND.
.EVANS/GUYER.. 11/23/2007
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