SWODY1
SPC AC 210034
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2007
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
THROUGH THE WRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH WEAKER...LOWER LATITUDE
IMPULSES TRANSLATING MORE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND TX. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MO IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEWD INTO NRN IND OVERNIGHT WITH TRAILING...STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING SEWD/SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SERN TX
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ONGOING AS OF 00Z JUST S/SW OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER
00Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD
INTO S TX OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ABOVEMENTIONED IMPULSES
TRANSLATING NEWD.
ELSEWHERE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AS
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1200 J/KG...NAMELY FROM
THE OZARKS SWWD...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
.MEAD.. 11/21/2007
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