SWODY1
SPC AC 111948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2007
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..OH VALLEY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH NERN IA...CNTRL IL AND
INTO WRN KY. CLUSTERS OF LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON W OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...EWD TO E
OF WARM FRONT OVER IND AND WRN OH. RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND
VWP/PROFILER PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD ZONE OF
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG WSWLY LLJ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS.
THIS LLJ APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE/DEVELOP
EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND AWAY FROM
PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
TEND TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS EWD.
..KS/OK/TX...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING EWD INTO SWRN TX IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER...UPSTREAM
SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST. MODIFICATION OF 12Z
MAF SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AIR MASS
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE REMAINS CAPPED FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE PROSPECTS OF ANY DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM
SECTOR REMAIN QUITE LOW.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT AS
LLJ AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INTENSIFY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH TX. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
..CA/NV...
HEIGHT FALLS/CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IT MOVES ONSHORE. ASSOCIATED
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.MEAD.. 11/11/2007
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