Friday, November 2, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030050
SWODY1
SPC AC 030047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED LARGELY BY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
MID/UPPER RMS VALLEY...SEPARATE TROUGH WITH NEARLY CURT-OFF LOW OVER
CA...AND BROAD UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE CAROLINAS BEFORE 3/12Z.
AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF CONUS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY...STABLE AND/OR
DEFICIENT IN LIFT TO YIELD TSTM THREAT.

..CAROLINAS COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN SMALL BANDS AND CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR COAST...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR
IMMEDIATE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TO EXTENT THAT CHS/MHX RAOBS
SAMPLED WRN EXTENT OF AIR MASS -- ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER -- SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY MAY EXTEND INTO THERMAL ZONES FAVORABLE FOR ICE PROCESSES
TO SUPPORT LTG. HOWEVER...STRONGEST BUOYANCY AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH REST OF PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL
SUFFICIENTLY LOW OVER LAND TO PRECLUDE GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED IN AOA 10% CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES OVER ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR 03Z-12Z PERIOD...IN SPC EXPERIMENTAL/ENHANCED TSTM
PRODUCT.

.EDWARDS.. 11/03/2007

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