SWODY1
SPC AC 051944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST MON NOV 05 2007
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR
PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS....
..MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. AND...THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR/ABOVE 60F AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1 INCH...GENERALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF STRONGER FORCING SHIFTING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND
MAY INCREASE FURTHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DEEPER COLD AIR
SURGE THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS CUTS OFF NORTHEASTWARD
MOISTURE RETURN.
POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED...OR NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORMS...STILL SEEMS BEST NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. THIS IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...WHERE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH MORE FAVORABLE HEATING/MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST. MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.
.KERR.. 11/05/2007
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