SWODY1
SPC AC 240037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES IS NOW
DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
..SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM OF EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO THE MOGOLLON MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. AND...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENT IN
RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 24/03-04Z. BUT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SEEMS A BIT MORE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO SONORA...AS
MID-LEVEL FORCING/DESTABILIZATION STRENGTHENS NORTHEAST OF
DEVELOPING LOW.
..TEXAS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PROGRESS ALONG REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...200+ MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH
SYSTEM. AND...WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH
MUCH OF SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER 24/06Z...AND
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE 24/09-12Z TIME FRAME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CAPE FROM LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION
BELOW THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL...THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE
LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CHARGE
SEPARATION/CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT...UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
.KERR.. 11/24/2007
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