Tuesday, November 20, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201252
SWODY1
SPC AC 201249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 AS TROUGH OVER THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BROADENS/DEEPENS SE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE E CST. ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL ACCELERATE EXISTING
VORT COMPLEX NOW OVER THE GULF OF CA AND NRN MEXICO NEWD AS AN OPEN
TROUGH OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER NRN KS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ALONG
STALLING FRONT TO THE DET/TOL AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE SE IN WAKE OF LOW...LIKELY REACHING A
MAF/ABI/ADM/FYV/SLO/TOL LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..LWR MI SW TO E TX/LA...
SUSTAINED S TO SWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
TO SPREAD N/NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS
INTO THE OH VLY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN
IND/OH TO THE MID/UPR 60S ALONG THE TX/LA CST. POSITIVE TILT OF UPR
FLOW PATTERN WILL...HOWEVER...MAINTAIN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REGION...AND LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG.

ISOLD/SCTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN/ERN TX
INTO LA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING WITH
MEXICAN TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION DURING MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE...
ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM TONIGHT IN ANAFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM
CNTRL/SRN MI SW INTO THE OZARKS AND POSSIBLY NE OK. OTHER
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER AR ON
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ASCENT.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/20/2007

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