Sunday, November 11, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120044
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS SERN OH AND
VICINITY...THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ATTM. WHILE THE TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 10% THUNDER
AREA AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..PARTS OF N TX/OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...
CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED ANY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS HINT...THOUGH...THAT QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY
PERMIT SUFFICIENT ABOVE-GROUND MOISTENING AND UVV TO ALLOW A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA
OF 10% THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.GOSS.. 11/12/2007

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